Betting the Series
by Stefan Tornquist
Some people will tell you baseball is the easiest sport bet for the novice. This is because it’s usually a straight bet: who’s going to win. That’s true enough, but having taken regular financial beatings courtesy of baseball (probably because I’m genetically incapable of betting on the Yankees), I only wager on football, cricket and table tennis these days.
The downside of a straight bet—called a money line—is that if you bet on the favorite you need to risk much more than you might win. The money line for World Series on Detroit is – 195. So, if you like Detroit in game one, you’ve got to slap down $195 for a chance to win $100. As the underdog, St. Louis’ money line is at +175, meaning if you bet $100 and the redbirds win you get $175.
When considering a bet, ask yourself what matters to you – enjoying the game or cash. If you don’t care about the teams, you’re at liberty to make the smart bet. It’s when you care that it gets tricky. Some people bet against their own team, happy to either make money or celebrate a win. I want both, which makes me a terrible baseball bettor.
You can bet on the entire Series rather than betting individual games. If you like Detroit’s chances but don’t want to risk guessing just how they’re going to pull it off this is a good bet. Plenty of people have picked the Series winner but lost money playing game by game. Right now, a Detroit series pick will cost you $220 to win $100, and the Cards are discounted paying $170 for your $100.
Whatever your side, here are some factors to consider:
Starting pitching –With two strong batting teams, pitching arms set the line in Vegas. World Series experience is crucial, an area that St. Louis has an edge. Another question: has either team batted against the opposing pitcher? If not, the pitcher has the advantage, at least once or twice through the lineup. Finally, do the starters last deep into a contest—averaging 120 pitches per game, say—or are they good for five, maybe six innings? If they’re not good for more than 100 pitches, that increases the importance of middle relief. World Series teams are plating in October in part because they’ve got smart hitters, not just big hitters. They’ll make pitchers work deep into a count. Chances are you’ll see the bullpen.
Bullpens – These days, a complete game is a rare feat. So sooner or later, you’ll see the opposing bullpen. Both of these teams have solid bullpens, but the nod goes to Detroit.
Home field – Unlike football, crowd noise in baseball has a nominal impact on the game. There’s nothing a player can’t do with the crowd screaming their lungs out that he couldn’t do in a vacuum, except breathe. But, batting during the final outs offers a significant advantage in tight games, and a huge advantage in extra innings. This year Detroit gets the additional edge of having four of seven games played at home with a Designated Hitter, thanks to this year’s All Star game.
Weather – cold nights usually translate into low scoring games. This favors an Under bet, meaning you wager the two teams will not score above a certain number of runs. The projected high in Detroit for Saturday is 57º, and a balmy 49º on Sunday, with a low of 35º. Don’t bet on weather unless you have no other ideas.
Managers – sometimes this is a big factor, but with two old pros, both of whom have Series experience, it’s hard to imagine it’ll make the difference.
The bottom line – The Detroit Tigers won the dominant American League. National League teams have been shelled in interleague play and the All-Star game, and haven’t won a single World Series game since 2003. I’m a believer in playing to the competition. Over seven intense games, I’d favor the Tigers, the team that has seen the better pitching and hitting during the season.
Postscript – The great thing about baseball is that most analysts picked Detroit. Many even picked a sweep. Might as well bet on the shape of next week’s clouds.
— Stefan Oct 31, 07:25 PM #