Gambling Gurus: Wildcard Weekend

by Stefan Tornquist & Brooke Costello

Stefan: For anyone who wondered where the column was for week 17, we were snowed in, which is how we say drunk and lazy in New England. But now we’re headed into the money days. The playoffs should provide bettors with several strong opportunities in the next two weeks. It will be tempting to bet every game, but a smart bettor will pick his battles.

Brooke: The best bet of the week is a prop bet on Indy and Jax to win the Super Bowl.

Saturday 4:30 — Washington at Seattle (-4, 40)

Stefan: I’ve done a stellar job of not watching Seattle play this year, but there’s no getting out of it on Saturday. It’s tough to have a strong opinion on the Hawks; they’ve won a lot of games, but mostly against mediocre teams. Seattle has no running game to speak of, but may not need it, as their passing game has gotten into a rhythm. Surprisingly, the Seahawks D, while only ranked 15th in overall yardage, has kept opposing quarterbacks to a league best 70.78 rating. Granted they did that in the NFC West .

Meanwhile, Washington is playing its best football, inspired and having fun. I don’t see any reason why Seattle should be able to dominate in this game. Take the feel good Skins to beat the points as long as it stays over a field goal, which could very well determine this game. As for the total, both of these teams played Under more often than not, but that scares me a bit. I think Seattle is going to have to air it out.

Brooke: When I was a kid these were two of my three favorite teams. Exciting things always happened when they showed their games on the Tele. Zorn and Largent always seemed to hook up on an impossible throw and catch, and Joe Gibbs always seemed to pick the right time to gamble with a flea flicker or fake kick. But it’s 2008 now and Seattle has won its fifth straight Ttitle playing mediocre to bad football in the division that shall not be named. And, ever since Gibbs’s return it has seemed as though he is saving up for a nice new car to drive into a wall.

In short there won’t be much to watch in this one, and that’s why we spice it up with wagers. The Skins have won their Super Bowl by getting this far. Seattle waits a week to implode. Plenty of three and outs for the Skins, a couple of scores for the Hawks, and Seattle wins 17-9. Hawks and the Under.

Saturday 8:00 — Jacksonville(-2) at Pittsburgh (38)

Stefan: Jax may be more than a two-point favorite by Saturday night, but the only thing that’s not to like about them is that everyone likes them. They’ve beaten Pitt three times in a row, including last month at Heinz Field. Old hands will tell you that it’s tough to beat the same team twice in a short period. But I don’t think that applies here because you’ve got two similar teams in this game, only Jax is a bit better. No Willie Parker only makes the pick that much sweeter. I like Jax despite the furor and will wait on the weather to decide on the total.

Brooke: Sometimes, a thing is the thing it is, and Jacksonville is a better team than Pitt. They are better everywhere on the field except for the small patch of ground Hines Ward occupies. If you want a little hedge take the over unless the sky is falling.

Sunday 1:00 — Giants at Tampa Bay (-3, 39.5)

Stefan: It all comes down to whether the Giants can play like they did on Saturday again. The Patriots and Colts are the only two teams that could have kept up with them that night. It was fun to watch, but I have a hard time imagining a repeat. Tampa has the second-ranked defense in the league, and Jeff Garcia can move enough to neutralize the front four of the Giants…at least some of the time. Still, the NFC East is probably the most competitive division in football (albeit the intramural NFC) and that the Giants have played much better on the road than at home. I’m thinking about a tease of the Giants and the Under, but could just as easily move that Over down to 34.

Brooke: The Gints are prepared to take a knee, and they have every time they’ve been popped in the jaw. Against the Bills, down 14-0, they looked like they didn’t care. Then a bad snap on a punt and a pick for a TD gave them the lead, and they came to life. Against the Pats they played well until the Pats started playing well. Then they got rolled for 22 straight points. They are a talented team with a week pulse. TB is exactly the opposite. Garcia and the Bucs are all effort all the time. Take TB and keep the points out of it.

Sunday 4:30 Tennessee at San Diego (-9, 41)

Stefan: This line is going to move a bit depending on which Tennessee QB starts. Even though Kerry Collins is probably a better pure thrower than Vince Young, he’s not a mover and shaker, The fierce D line of San Diego is hoping he’ll play. Either way, I like San Diego here. They’re very good; they’re playing their best ball of the season; and they like to add to leads once they have them. Unless Tenn can put up a lead in the first half, expect Tomlinson to get better throughout the game, and take it over by midway through the third. Naysayers will point out the Chargers’ three straight playoff losses, but that’s just using up ink. The Chargers beat the Titans on the road by 6 three weeks ago. This one won’t be that close.

Brooke: Cleveland did me wrong. I had all these funny things to say about Norv and the Boys and had a lock over on tap for you. But Cleveland did me wrong. The gulf in quality between Tennessee and the rest of the field in the AFC is pretty huge, and SD will win this game. The scare comes when Tennessee gets the ball down 27-14 with 2 minutes to play. Give me SD.