Gambling Gurus: Week One Picks: Browns, Broncos Stink

Albert Haynesworth stomps on players. Will that help the Redskins beat the spread?

For the last few seasons, the Modern Spectator has brought you weekly picks from our resident gambling addicts, Stefan Tornquist and Brooke Costello. This year they’re back again, prognosticating in the face of Roger Goodell’s war on gambling (no hypocrisy there) and hopefully offering up some football laughs. The editors (read: Austin) regret, though, that we weren’t able to post their week one column in time. Trust us: It’s been sitting in our inbox since last Thursday morning. Look back also at their season preview.

Welcome back. This year we’re going to be trying to keep our weekly columns shorter, but apart from that, you can expect the same snarky and occasionally accurate NFL predictions you’ve come to expect.

Last season ended with the following stats. I’d say we’ll try to do even better, but who are we kidding?

Stefan 57.5% Yearly take: $3,160*

Brooke 50.9% Yearly take: $1,010*

*Assumes a wager of $100/game on the full recommended slate of games.

Thursday 8:30PM
Tennessee at Pitt (-6, 35)
ST:
The Titans aren’t going to be as good as last year, and though I think the same will be true of Pitt, that won’t become clear until later. For the time being, take Pitt straight, or tease Pitt with the Over. The money has been moving the line in favor of the Steelers, while the total remains unchanged.

BC:
Earlier in the week I convinced myself that the Titans were finally ready to step over the line that has separated this franchise from glory for so long, but then I remembered that last year was that year, and that Oilers/Titans always play bridesmaid to the AFC’s elite. I think the Titans lose a lot of close ones this year. Titans ATS and the Over for separate accounts.

Sunday
Miami at Atlanta (-4,43)
ST:
At least one of these two is going to disappoint fans who thought last year was an indication instead of an aberration. The Falcons have a talent for non-consecutive winning seasons and the Fins have been masters of the basement for most of the decade. On paper I like Miami to keep things interesting this season, but if Ryan heals up by the end of the week, his receivers should have fun with the Fins secondary and Turner will get over the century. Atlanta and/or Atlanta T with the Over.

BC:
I love overrated playoff teams and that is exactly what Miami was last year. They made us a bundle of duckets when they did exactly what they were expected to do against Baltimore. I feel that Miami will continue to be generous against superior teams at least until Vegas catches up. I’m giving it two weeks. Atlanta straight.

KC at Baltimore (-13, 37)
S.T.:
I loved this game at 9.5, and I’d still take Baltimore by 20.5. They are going to come out of the gate strong and punish the hapless. KC is the very definition, at least on the road.

B.C.:
KC is very unlucky to get this game first. Or on the other hand it may be a giant stroke of good fortune. If I were Coach Haley I would keep Cassel out regardless of his health and bring him back next week at home against the Raiders. Ravens ATS.

Philly (-1.5, 44) at Carolina
S.T.:
Like I said last week, this is an off year for Carolina and I had a hard time believing last year. Philly or a sweet tease of Philly and the Over.

B.C.:
How smart are the Eagles? The Eagles play the NFC South this year. In fact 3 of their first 4 opponents are NFC teams. So what did they do? They went out and got the guy who tormented the NFC South the way few players have. They got him for next to nothing. Hey Carolina you remember a guy named Vick? What’s that? He’s suspended. Westbrook is hurt? Mmm…. Carolina as a home dog sounds pretty good. Carolina ATS.

Denver at Cincy (-4,44)
S.T.:
Pinch me, but Cincy looks like a good pick. Carson Palmer is healthy-ish for…at least the start of the game…that’s 7 right there.

B.C.:
Is it too soon for Denver to play for draft order? Cinci undefeated after week one? You gotta believe.


Minny (-4, 39.5) at Cleveland

S.T.:
Yes please. Brett’s as healthy as he’s going to get and the Browns are weak against the run. Minn.

B.C.:
Is it too early for Cleveland to play for draft order? Mangenius will carve out 4 wins for the Browns. But this won’t be one of them. Minny ATS and the AP season opening over.

Jets at Houston (-4.5, 43)

S.T.:
I think the Jets probably lose this one, but not by a lot. Avoid on all counts. Take the Jets for fun, but not profit. Would tease this Under with most anything.

B.C.:
The Texans present real match-up problems for the Jets. The front seven led by Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans is top notch, but the Texans secondary is a huge Achilles heel. The Jets have a rookie throwing and a bunch of sort of has beens catching. I am also beginning to think ex- Raven defenders are like ex-Patriot coaches. Texans ATS

Jax at Indy (-7, 44.5)
S.T.:
Straight up or mix Indy with your favorite in something else, making them barely have to win this one. For example, the Pats and San Diego would appreciate 6 points, as would Dallas (my favorite for the parlay at 6 even).

B.C.:
Indy is a somewhat forgotten team, but they still have monster talent all over the field. The big question is how badly or if at all the loss of Tony Dungy and Tom Moore hurts these guys. My guess is this is this teams Switzer Year and there is enough good stuff in place for them to roll they way they are accustomed. I think Jack Del Rio will be looking for a job come 2010. Indy ATS.

Lions at New Orleans (-13, 49)
S.T.:
Sure, New Orleans is good for 48, but where does the other point come from? I’m bullish on NO this year, but make it easy on them by bringing the spread down to 7 and combining with something else you like on the board.

B.C.:
It’s absolutely true that misery loves company, but even more true is that every NFL fan of a losing teamloves the hijinx Detroit gets up to every year. Detroit just makes us happy. NO ATS, the Over and a Tease of the over and NO.

Dallas (-6, 39) at Tampa
S.T.:
Love Dallas in a tease or straight. They’re loaded for bear, and Tampa is a duck.

B.C.:
I haven’t been paying much attention to Dallas this year, but I’m assuming Wade Phillips has been. He got rid of some of that excess talent he had lying around the last few years which could mean he has a more cohesive unit that fight all the way to the end. It could also mean that they are worse then they have been in a while. Tampa is the worst it has bee since forever. But you have to give them credit for rebuilding from the ground up.

49ers at Arizona (-6.5, 47)
S.T.:
These two play each other tight and hard, so I like the Under or the tease of the Under with Arizona.

B.C.:
My high school guidance counselor told me to get a degree in computer science or engineering. He explained that there was a real shortage of native-born Americans in either field. I ignored him and got a degree in trash talking, but looking at SF over the last few years I definitely should have gotten a degree in quarterbacking. I mean it seems like the job has been open forever and they say it pays well. Zona ATS.

Giants (-6.5, 37.5) at Washington

S.T.:
The Gints were a spread meeting machine for us last year, and I feel it’s only right to give them the nod on the first weekend. Should be interesting to see whether Wash can really change the landscape in the division, but only until week 6, by which time they will have proven that they can’t.

B.C.:
I read a quote from a pro scout that said Albert Haynesworth was the single most disruptive defensive guy in the league. I read somewhere else that he is looking overweight and sluggish. Then I saw the highlight of him mashing Tom Brady into the ground and I thought I saw him smile as Brady’s shoulder half collapsed. That must have felt really good to Albert, so good he would definitely like to do it a few times to the funnier looking Manning. Wash and the Under separately.

STL at Seattle (-7.5, 42.5)

S.T.:
Another spread that speaks to the divide in NFL talent this year. Sure, there will be surprises, but the percentage of middle class teams has dropped in favor of a bunch of dogs and fair number of elites. Take Seattle at home until Hasselback takes a tumble.

B.C.:
There were times last year that it really seemed St Louis was much worse than Detroit. They might actually be worse than Detroit this year. Sea teased with the over.

Chicago at GB (-3.5, 44.5)
S.T.:
I’m feeling green and yellow this year. I’d take the Pack and the Over as a hedge against Cutler having an exciting debut.

B.C.:
This definitely does not seem to be a shorter column! Chi ATS.


Monday Night

Buffalo at Pats (-10.5, 48)
S.T.:
Brooke will undoubtedly speak to this eloquently, and with the resigned honesty of a clear eyed fan, so I’ll just say this. Pats by 24 and the Over.

B.C.:
What the heck is going on in my hometown? I read an article in the Buffalo News and the columnist suggested what we are seeing is a money grab before Ralph Wilson pulls an Irsay. Hmmm. There has been some seriously erratic choices made up there. T.O. and the Toronto deal have actually flooded the Bills coffers. But really keeping Dick Jauron, getting rid of their Offensive Coordinator and both of their two best offensive lineman and starting two rookies at guard while trying to shift to a purely no huddle attack with a quarterback more likely to wet himself before throwing down field actually seems like just all around chaos. Ralph Wilson just got into the Hall of Fame and has been a great owner for many years, but I think unless he wants to be Ahole Davis East he should take himself out of the decision making process. Bill ATS.


SD (-9,44) at Oakland

S.T.:
The Pats have Oakland’s #1 pick next year, so I’m hoping they sink to new lows. That pursuit starts Monday in a bashing by San Diego. Seymour hasn’t even reported yet, so is unlikely to start, not that it would matter. SD and the Over as a hedge if you’re a Raiders fan.

B.C.:
Is it too early to bring the flex game to Monday night? Send the Bills to Oakland (and at least one set of fans gets to dream for another week) and SD to New England and all of America gets to see one good game and then get to bed. There is still a recession on after all and the workers of the USA need to get their rest.

print

One Comment

  1. Pingback: Gambling Gurus: Week 2 Picks, Seymour Goes Mad | The Modern Spectator

Leave a Reply