Our gambling gurus Stefan Tornquist and Brooke Costello give us their weekly take on Vegas and the NFL.
Inexplicably, our esteemed editor and publisher is tired of getting articles that are 500 words too long and two days late. So, we’re going to keep picking all the games but limit our “analysis” to our faves.
Last week’s totals: ST went 9 and 4 and is 76- 54-3 on the year at 59%. BC was 8 and 11 and is 77-73-2, a 51% clip. It should be noted that Brooke has called 20 more games, and the more games you call, the more likely you are to fall prey to the great middling.
DEN at ATL (-6,51.5)
ST: I’m starting to feel the Falcon’s love. Granted I have watched exactly zero seconds of them play, but the box scores look pretty good. Last week NO managed just enough to get us to the Over, but Atlanta owned the game from the beginning. I like the same thing to happen this week. Tease Atlanta with the Over and enjoy. I also would like Atlanta in any other tease.
B: Two great tastes that taste great together: betting against Denver and betting on a Denver over. Give me Atl and the Over as separate wagers.
BAL at NYG (-6.5, 42)
ST: Rave-on. These guys are getting to be fun to watch and the Gints might be at a vulnerable point. I expect them to blow one of the next two, totally winnable, games. Here’s their chance. After a big win against Philly they’re going to be expecting a low scoring run fest from the Ravens that the Giants will ultimately dominate. But that’s now how Baltimore is playing these days. They’ve been scoring, albeit against meatballs. But I think the Giants will come out bedraggled and under-motivated. Ravens and Ravens teased with the Over.
B: Oddly, in a dominant year, the Gints have struggled against their AFC North opponents (See Cleveland and Cinci). Unless you count Miami, Baltimore does not have a benchmark win. Something they can look back on and say “See we are this good.” It feels like voodoo, but I see Baltimore playing their best game and the Giants snoozing for 3 quarters or so. I’ll take Baltimore ATS and an over.
MIN at TB (-3.5, 39)
ST: Adrian Peterson has to win games for Minny and I don’t think he will against the Tampa D at home. Their corners are good enough so that pretty much everybody can sit in wait for AP. I heart Tampa and would flirt with the Under but am just not that into the tease of both.
B: Barely beating KC is not something the Bucs should be proud of but beating Carolina by 24 is. TB is a very different team at home. They beat up on Minny. TB ATS. This is also great tease material.
Ten at Jax (+3, 39.5)
ST: This is the big time for Jax – with pretty much no chance at the playoffs they get to knock off the last undefeated team, a division rival. Unfortunately they haven’t been the kind of team that seems capable of rallying to a cause. Sure the bullied Detroit last week, but Alcorn State could give the Lions a run for their money. I’m bored of suggesting the Titans, so I’ll predict the upset. Of course, I’m betting on Tennessee.
B: The Jags are further proof that a team is only as good as its O and D lines let it be. It will take all five Jax down lineman to keep Haynesworth out of the backfield, and the other 10 Tenn defenders lay some licks on Garrard. Take Tenn and the Under.
SD at PIT (-4.5, 43)
The Chargers have won exactly one road game and that was against…wait for it…Oakland, who at last count had gone 9 quarters without a touchdown from their “offense.” I know Pitt looked awful last week but they’ve insisted that Big Ben practice instead of resting his shoulder this week, so he’ll either look better or get benched you’d think. To hedge take Pitt and the Over, but Pitt and the Over as a tease.
B: Time is running out for the Bolts and for some reason they don’t seem to care that much. Pitt hasn’t laid an egg all year and this does not seem to be the week they do. One thing that bears repeating is SD has been leading or within 1 score of the lead in every game they have played this year. Give yourself some breathing room and tease SD w the over.
DAL at Wash (+2, 45)
ST: The line assumes that Tony Romo is coming back strong and that Wash won’t be able to keep up. The line is smart, but Washington will be tough home dog. They haven’t hung up a quality win since their win at Philly back in the first week of October, so it’s hard to be optimistic, but I’m betting on Wash to keep it close and relatively low scoring. Tease Wash with the Under.
B: Romo is back and Portis is 50/50. Both teams are coming off the bye after having their teeth kicked in the week before. Campbell is a clever game manager and Romo is a wicked game breaker. I think the wise thing to do would be to double up on TB or Tenn but who here is claiming to be wise? Wash and the over as a hedge.
CLE at BUFF (-5,42.5)
ST: If anybody is going to get Buffalo on track it’s Cleveland on the road. But that’s a big ‘if’ the way they’ve been playing. I don’t see Buff losing another one but I also don’t like 5 points. I might be inclined to give Cleveland another six, along with the Over
B: This Battle for Lake Erie takes place in a The Road like state of football Armageddon for two of the hardest to kill towns in the country. After starting 4-0 the Bills have gone 1-4 over the last five weeks and have shown themselves to not be ready for their close up. The Bills have not been to the playoffs since the 1999 Music City Miracle doubled the suicide rate in Erie County. The team currently playing in Cleveland is called the Browns and they look like the Browns but their play has been more like a Cleveland Steamer floating listlessly down the Cuyahoga River. Tease the Bills with the over.
CH at GB (-3,43) ST: CH, U BC: CH, U
NO at KC (+5,49.5) ST: NO, Tease of NO/O BC: KC, U
Oak at MIA (-10.5,38.5) ST: Tease of Oak/Under, BC: Oak, U
HOU at Indy (-8.5,51) ST: Colts, Under, Tease of Colts/Under BC: Colts, U
Zona at Sea (+3, 47.5) ST: Zona, BC: Zona, O
DET at CAR (-14,40) ST: Tease Carolina with the Over, BC: Car, Over
PHI at CIN (+9,42) ST: CIN, Over, BC: Philly, O
STL at SF (-6.5,44.5) ST: SF, BC: SF, O
Keep underestimating the Giants, and they’ll slouch to another Super Bowl.
— Eli Nov 17, 05:16 PM #