Gambling Gurus: End Turkey Day Tyranny

Stefan Tornquist and Brooke Costello review the NFL from a gambling perspective.

ST: I get annoyed at Thanksgiving because game quality drops. A big reason: history. The Lions, seriously? These chumps haven’t been able to sell out the dome for this Thanksgiving. Let us learn from past mistakes. Stop the madness by signing the petition here.

B: I signed my Bills up to take the Lions spot.

Titans at Lions (+10.5, 44)
ST: The Titans finally got schooled, and the Lions really, really want to win at home on the holiday. I’m having a hard time imagining them doing it, but they have kept things close on occasion. Will the Titans come out weird and flat after last week? Nah – remember how the Giants lost to Cleveland? Everybody gets a bye once per season. Anything short of a mugging and we’ll reevaluate. If you want to hedge, take the Titans and the Over. If Detroit makes a game of it, you’ll get one side.

B: The interesting thing about the Lions this year is they are 4-7 ATS and all four of those ATS wins have been when they have been double digit dogs. Why is that interesting? Well the seven loses in games that were supposed to be close were pretty much blowouts with many of them being by 20 points or more. On the flip side Tennessee is tied for the best record in the league and this is the first time they are giving double digits. I am going to play the chart and take the Lions and the over separately.

Seahawks at Dallas (-13, 47)
ST: You can depend on Dallas to win this one – their giant receivers will tower over the diminutive Seattle corners and the running game that kept them in the game against the Skins won’t materialize in Dallas. As much as that’s a scary spread, I’m tempted to take Dallas, with a bit on the Over as a hedge if Seattle keeps it interesting.

B: Dallas took a few weeks off in the middle of the season, but at 7-4 they look good for getting into the playoffs. Seattle looks good if you are getting ready to play them. 40-20 Dallas sounds about right for this one. D and the Over.

Cards at Philly (-3,47)
ST: Good sense says that the Eagles pull themselves together for this home game on the holiday. Good sense says that between the cold and not needing this game at all, the Cards take a loss. I just can’t bet on Philly. I’m going to tease the Over with the Dallas Over.

B: I can’t figure out why Vegas would be giving points to the Cards, unless it’s the fact they don’t have a quality road win this year. But is Philly still a quality team? A lot of Eagles will be fighting for their jobs Thursday night, and I think that will not be a good thing. When the bookmakers give the better team points take it. The Cards and the under.

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