Gambling Gurus: NFL Week 5 Picks

 Ah, good times. This week we finally managed to reverse our fortunes – our picks in the column fell below .500, but our wagers in the real world went 5-0, and here’s why that’s interesting to you; we went with the mutual picks from the column. So, if you’re looking for a strategy that’s as reliable as the stock market, you found it.

Buff at Cards (-1,44.5)
ST: Can Buff go 5-0 with a win in the heat? Wouldn’t shock me at all. Can both teams combine to put up 45 points? Why not? Would a tease of this Over with anything else on the board, including Buffalo, suit me? You betcha!

B: 5-0 is a lot nicer then 4-1, and the Bills have the bye coming up. Zona just got their asses handed to them and are likely without Boldin. 4 years ago the Bills went 9-7 and 4 of those wins were against the NFC West. The division has not improved has it. I like the Bills and the Under.

Tennessee(-3) at Baltimore (33.5)
ST: I was impressed by Baltimore and the new kid on Monday. Take away 14 weird seconds and the Ravens owned that game, but that’s pitted against my gratitude to the Titans for having been a bulwark of my terrestrial betting this season. Besides, Baltimore played their guts out on Monday. The Tennessee offensive line has been a strength of the team, and I’m betting they can keep Kerry Collins upright long enough to score the 17 points that will be enough to win, although I have an unnatural love of any Over under 34 points. Tennessee.

B: Tennessee will lose 3 or 4 games this year but this won’t be one of them. I think the OT loss to the Men of Steel catches up to the Ravens about half way through the third quarter. Take the Titans and the over.

Chicago(-3.5) at Detroit (44.5)
ST: This game opened at a 3 point spread which is as good an argument for eschewing a living, belching bookie for an online account. The Lions beat Chicago twice last season, half of their win total if memory serves. It’s hard to argue for the Lions in any context, but the last time I wrote about a team this bad it was predicting that Miami wouldn’t score in New England a couple of weeks ago. I think bets on Chicago and the Over might make sense – if Chicago pitches a near shut out you split, if Detroit wins it will be by scoring scads of points and you split, and maybe Chicago wins a shootout and you win both sides.

B: Thanksgiving comes early this year!!! Who needs a bailout when you can bet against the Lions every week.

Cincy at Dallas (-17, 44)
ST: Take Cincy and the Over as separate bets. Cincy needs to score 14 points to get you at least one side. I think they can against a Cowboys team that will have won the game by the third quarter and cravenly doesn’t care about the spread.

B: Imagine for a second that Cincy gets the ball first and they connect on a long TD. Or Romo starts slow and gives up a pick for a TD. Then you need Dallas to score 25 to cover. It’s possible Carson Palmer won’t suit up and that should help the cause. Tease Dallas and the Over.

TB at Denver (-3,48)
ST: Denver at home is scary until proven otherwise. Tampa Bay is old anywhere until proven otherwise. This is also an Over I would add to a tease.

B: The Denver Fade ® is not some sweet hairdo all the kids are wearing. It’s the stock-market-like collapse the Broncs treat us to every year. It seems to be starting early this year. They will still put up plenty of home game points so the over is not out of the question, but bet against Denver in this one.

Indy(-3) at Houston (47)
ST: I’m guessing that bye week was just what Indy needed. I have few cardinal rules, but Indy by 3 is one of them, at least until after this game. The total also seems a little high, but I hate me them Unders.

B: I think Indy misses the playoffs this year, and I think this game may be the one Peyton thinks about in the offseason. Texans and the over as separate bets.

Pitt at Jax (-4,36)
ST: This is one of those games where the small facts are making my brain hurt. Jax won the last four against the Curtain. They won those games by 3 points every time. The Steelers offensive line is banged up and starting back-ups. Jax couldn’t run against the Steelers when they played last. Ugh. Whenever brain fog happens, I try to stay away. The best bet might be a play of the Jags and the Over. If the Steelers win or keep it close, you probably get the Over. Maybe you get both.

B: It doesn’t get any easier for Pitt, and it can’t get much harder. Two more starters out for the year and a hungry Jags team starting to find their stride spells trouble for the Steelers. Jags and I love the over.

NE(-3) at SF (41)
ST: Best bet, stay away. If you must, tease SF with the Under.

B: One completely faded Dynasty plays a rapidly fading one. I think Bill spent a lot of bye week time looking at the low scoring snore fest victories over KC and the Jets and realized that that is the only way he is going to win this year. SF and Mr Martz will have a few tricks up their sleeves. Give me SF on one side and the Over on the other.

ST: I was starting to write that I liked the Giants by 7 at Seattle. Having just noticed that it’s at Giants Stadium, I’m head over heels.

B: Seattle is better than St. Louis I’ll give them that. The Gints may be better than everyone. I love the Giants in a Tease with the Bears.

Wash at Philly (-5.5, 42.5)
ST: First off I like any tease that include Wash and any tease that includes this Over. Um, maybe a tease of Wash and the Over?

B: It’s the Westbrook rule. If he’s in take Philly. If he’s not take the under and bite your nails for 3 hrs.

SD(-6.5) at Miami (45)
ST: Miami shot their wad in New England two weeks ago, although I hate that West Coast on the East Coast thing. The Chargers have played weirdly on the road but will catch their stride. Hope everybody in Miami enjoyed that Pats game, but it’s tough to have the high point of your season in week three. SD and the Over.

B: Marino vs Fouts was a long time ago. Marino vs anybody was a very long time ago if you are a Dolphins fan. Phillip Rivers and Chris Chambers remind the Teal and Orange faithful that pitch and catch can be a beautiful thing. SD and the over as separate plays.

Minny at NO (-3,46.5)
ST: New Orleans is going to score on that Vikings secondary. Take the 3 at home.

B: When do we get to watch Brees play Rivers? Minny is suffering from Redskinitis, and now they get to watch as their great run D is passed over. A Peterson does his thing but it won’t be enough. NO


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