Gambling Gurus: Last-Minute Odds, NFL Week Seven Picks

Stefan Tornquist and Brooke Costello made these picks just under the wire. Look back at their performance.

We got lazy and let the league surprise us. Apparently it surprised the whole NFC East as well which, with the exception of Philly, managed to lose to teams against which they had an average spread of 10 points. Overall, a great week of football and a miserable week for the wallet. I’ll do the tally again next week but for now, let’s just say it wasn’t pretty and leave it at that.

At NY Giants (-10.5) San Francisco (46)
49ers at Giants – Are the Champs suddenly beatable? Can SF rage against the machine? Nope, not after a transcontinental flight and against an embarrassed squad. SF has some talent so I wouldn’t be terrified of the Over, but I like the Gints just fine.
B: Are the Giants angry? I don’t think they are. Dallas is fading everybody else is just good, but SF comes east to play the early game. It takes a half for SF to wake up, just long enough for them to cover and the over to be achieved.

Pittsburgh (-9.5) At Cincinnati (35)
Pitt at Cincy – With Palmer out and the Begals only putting up 171 yards against the Jets last week, it’s hard to see a way clear for the home dogs. But with a spread that big and a total that small, you have to start thinking about taking Cincy and the Over as separate bets. 13 points at home gets you at least one side.
B:Cincy has established themselves as a team that shows up an loses to teams that are better than they are. 9.5 is way too much. C.P. is out of the game but the story out of Cincy is that their D ain’t bad. Injuries will catch up with Pitt eventually, not here not now, but a tease of Cincy and the under has a lot going for it.

Tennessee (-8) At Kansas City (35.5)
Titans at Chiefs – You know I loves me some Titans, but this reeks trap and the Titans don’t beat teams by 10 points. That’s not their style. Tease the Ts with anything else on the board. They tanned, rested and ready. KC is planned to be bested and unsteady.
B: Tennessee is rested after the bye and KC is rested after playing poorly for six weeks. KC’s best player fought for a trade and that can’t have felt good in the locker room. I like this over, and until Tenn fails me I like them as well.

At Chicago (-3) Minnesota (38)
Vikings at Bears – Let’s think back to the Vikings’ victories this season. With the help of a errant voodoo spell the beat New Orleans by giving them the ball back over and over. Then, they squeaked by Detroit at home. The same Detroit team that would be home dogs to the fightin’ Maple Saps of Northern Vermont Community College, St. Johnsbury Extension. Bears win an Under. Vikings might score a couple to keep it interesting. Take the Bears and the Over.
B: My new philosophy is to look hard at any under under 40. Vegas is counting on a 20-17 final in Minny’s favor. Based on everything I have watched this year this should be 24-20 Chicago. Tease the Bears w/ the over and write me a letter of thanks.

At Buffalo (PK) San Diego (44.5)
Chargers at Bills – Everyone figures the Chargers have come into their own, while Buffalo looked like Buffalo in Arizona. Don’t believe it. The Chargers are mediocre and only have a win over the Pats at home to show for themselves. A win in Buffalo and I’ll start playing them on the road. I’ll take the Bills.
B: My one and only problem with the Bills is they have one of if the most expensive offensive line in the league and those guys are letting an untouched blitzer pummel T.E. every week. They also can’t open holes for good running backs. Did the bye week help. I am going to wager that it did and back the home team in a tight one. I do this this over is a lock.

At Carolina (-3) New Orleans (44)
Saints at Panthers – Tease that Over down with say, the Dallas over, and enjoy. The Saints can’t stop a taxi and can score on anybody.
B: We all got caught drinking the Carolina cool-aid. I hereby dub them the Ravens of the NFC. They will win some games, but to get it handed to them like they did by the Bucs stuck my eyebrows on the ceiling. Drew Brees is the second coming of Dan Fouts and I love him for it. I’m going to take the dogs and the over as separate bets.

Dallas (-7) At St. Louis (43.5)
Boys at STLou – Take the Over and and Boys as a tease. The Cowboys just picked up a great receiver you may never have heard of – Roy Williams – because he played in Detroit. That should shift up their offense. Meanwhile their defense didn’t get any better with the suspension of PacMan Jones. Didn’t get any worse either.
B: Dallas is going to run, run, pass and it’s going to work for 31 points. StL is going to pass, pass, run and punt and it’s going to work for 10 points. So draw your own conclusions.

At Miami (-3) Baltimore (36.5)
Baltimore at Miami – The Under smells pretty good here…take it straight or tease it with the Bucs.
B: This is one for the ages!!!! Balt and the over separate bets thank you very much.

At Houston (-9) Detroit (46.5)
Lions at Texans – This has got to be the biggest spread ever laid on the Texans. I’d stay away from this shite sandvich, or put the Texans in a three teamer and ask them to simply win the game.
B: Now we’re talkin’. 1-4 takes on 0-5 and the 1-4 is favored by 9. Take it. Load up on it. It is going to happen. Houston is the pick.

NY Jets (-3) At Oakland (41)
Jets at Raiders – No reason the Jets shouldn’t grind one out here, but that half point scares me. The Raiders are going to win a couple, and the Jets will lost a few they should win. If anything, take the Over on the possibility that Brett has another Oakland miracle.
B: My surgically repaired knee is tell me screaming at me to take Oakland. I had ACL replacement surgery not long ago and I choose to have an allograft. This means some poor soul or soldier who died way before their years donated a fresh tendon to me, and Fred (the guy who gave me his part) talks to me about football incessantly. I think this is part of what makes his donation so compatible. He told me the Jets would be 8-8 and the best way to get there is to start 3-3.

Indianapolis (-1.5) At Green Bay (47)
Colts at Packers – I guess that given last week’s performance against a Baltimore B that according to my sources did make the plane despite appearances, I’ll revert to my standard ‘take the Colts at less than a touchdown’ mantra.
B: Look I like GB and all but unlike the Chargers who I think are 2 weeks from showing us who they really are Indy gave us all something to think about against the Ravens. They threw deep early and often. GB still has some blue chips in the offense and they will score theirs. Indy 35- GB 31.

At Washington (-7) Cleveland (42)
Browns at Skins – Tease the Skins with the Over. I like them to rebound and the Browns to be invigorated enough by last week’s game to put up a few.
B: Has Cleveland awakened? Some how this question doesn’t scare as deeply as has Russia awakened. Cleveland is not a slumbering Giant and Wash is a good team. The problem is they are probably exactly 1 TD better. So tease Wash w/ the over and have a ball.

At Tampa Bay (-10.5) Seattle (38)
Seahawks at Bucs – Sure, ten and a half is a lot of points, but consider the trifecta of downers for the Seahawks. First, they’re doing the east coast thing, albeit at 8pm. Second, they’re turning to Seneca Wallace with Matt Hasselbeck out. Third, they pretty much sucked to begin with. Certainly include Tampa in any three teamer, and in any tease you like. Four and half isn’t nearly as scary. I may just play straight up.
B: Seattle has to be considered the Rodney Dangerfield (Bless his eternal soul) of the NFC west. The thing is Rodney not only deserved respect, he deserved a deep and abiding love. The Seahawks deserve our scorn and deep and abiding cynicism. They seem to suck. 10.5 is steep, but 2 TDs aint much. I’ll take it with the over as separate bets.

At New England (-3) Denver (48)
Denver at the Pats – This sure isn’t the aerial dogfight the NFL had in mind when they booked it. Denver has proven themselves to be a different team out of Mile High, and New England simply hasn’t proven themselves. I think the Under is probably the best pick on the board, even though MNF doesn’t feel kind to Unders this year.
B: NE ain’t what it used to be but, and take this as gospel, Denver does not win this game, but even more profoundly this total will not be reached. I have a half going to the Patriot but I have a double on the under.

ST’s Three Team Tease Favorites: Tampa, Indy, Titans, Giants
Brooke’s Super duper three way tease: NE/DEN Under, Houston, Cincy

Bye Weeks: Arizona, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Philadelphia


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