Gambling Gurus: Take the Super Bowl Under

Stefan:
So, here we are. A game so swaddled in record breaking uniqueness that I feel like a superbowl virgin, touchdowns for the very first time… For some of us, it’s the giddy pinnacle of an improbable run. For the rest, it’s Red Five trying to pot that access port on the Death Star. Unlikely and sexy as hell. After two debauched weeks of analysis and commentary, there’s not much to add, except to gauge all that ‘wisdom’ against the spread.

Remember, most bookies won’t take a tease on the Big Game, so that G you had planned for an engorged 18.5 point spread mixed with an Under bumped to 60 points has to be spent elsewhere. First off, the spread. Although I can’t help but think the Patriots are poised to whup the Giants, they haven’t been playing that way, beating teams by just enough, which is also how they’ve historically played their Superbowls. I think this game will be played a lot tighter than the first meeting (think Dallas/NYG) and I like the Under. If I had to bet on a score, it would be something like 31-21.

But, if you’re a die hard Pats fan and can’t take the stress of betting against them, even with such a big spread, here’s the logic for you; Take the Over for twice your bet on the Pats, and enjoy every score. The Pats have beaten every quality team in the league on their way here, and dominated the significantly better AFC. The front four of the Giants won’t be enough to rush Brady on every play, and Wes Welker, Ben Watson and Kevin Faulk have 21 catches between them in the middle. Stallworth and Moss only catch 3 passes, but they’re all touchdowns, along with one to Vrabel and a history toss to Troy Brown. Maroney eats some clocks in second half, but the Giants get their 21 to get you there.

If you’re a Giants fan, load up and enjoy. You’ve got a shot at the biggest upset since Namath’s Jets and that spread is a tasty near guarantee that the day won’t go all bad.

It’s been great writing FBGs this season – thanks to Brooke for his Ginsberg cum Jimmy the Greek Revival, to Austin for giving us the pixels and to you for reading. Go Pats.

Brooke:

This is the last episode and I’m already suffering from post partum depression. My melancholy started over a month and a half ago when my Bills were flushed out into the off-season like so much bad issue. The team that pulled the handle was the same Giants that play tomorrow for all the marbles. Hold it, I need a tissue. Some how I can’t help but feel if the Bills long snapper didn’t give the Giants the ball at the Bills 2 yard line with the Bills up 14-0 the Giants wouldn’t have made the postseason.

But he did and They Did! And now here they are ready to ruin the Patriots perfect season. People are lining up to bet on the Gints and frankly I’m not feeling it. I just can’t forget what the Pats did to them in the second half of their regular season tilt. It is equally hard for me to forget that on consecutive plays Randy Moss ran away from their secondary. The second pass went for 6 pts and established records for both Brady and Moss. Dallas and Green Bay were not as good as any of the top four AFC challengers.

Will the Patriots cover? Yes they will. Adalius Thomas earns his big bucks, and the Pat defense keeps the Gints out of the endzone until it is too late. The Under holds a lot of appeal as a hedge bet.

Both these picks will be excruciating as Eli gets the ball with 3 minutes to go and the Giants down 34-15. But when Samuel picks Eli off and Maroney runs the clock out you will be able to look over the edge of the cliff and see the bloody pile of lemmings squirming miserably and know that you are better than they are.

See you next year!!!!!

print

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *