Gambling Gurus: Chargers to Beat the Spread, Lose

Stefan: I just crawled off my 8th flight in 12 days to find that AT&T wants $3,500 in roaming data charges from a 48 hour trip to the UK. But this is only the second worst thing to happen to my bankbook this week. I had the Indy part completely wrong, and while I was on with the GMen, I combined picks with the Over in Dallas and got clobbered.

Brooke: It’s never too late to learn. The gambling gurus took some lumps last weekend on what looked like solid plays. Two tipped balls for interceptions and a big Harrison fumble made the Indy game very unsuccessful for the GGs. The Dallas game was a win/win for us right up until it wasn’t. The point of this is that strange things happen in the Playoffs, and that you should not spend time trying to predict those strange things. Gamble on what you can predict, and if a muffed punt or bad drop ruins your bet so be it.

San Diego at New England (-14, 46.5)

Stefan: I’m a little stunned to find them facing San Diego rather than Indianapolis. Being from New England, I expect to face the same teams in every sport year after year and don’t like change very much. That said, I like the Pats to win, a lot. Although the spread is another story entirely. This game screams tease. Give San Diego the 6, moving the line to 20 (effectively 19) and the Over down to 40.5. I also like the Over straight up.

San Diego/Over Tease

SD/NE Over

Brooke: NE wins this game. This much we know. But SD thrived against Indy on the big play and converted 60% of their third downs. A big screen, a couple big passes, timely interceptions, and a fumble recovery made the difference. NE won’t give them the turnovers, but I think SD plays well enough to cover even if Volek gets the start. The over is yummy, but if the wind starts whipping around, take a tease of SD and the Under.

Giants at Green Bay (-7, 40)

Stefan: Every bit of logic says that Green Bay blows the Giants away. They’re tired, beat up, and have already accomplished more than anyone expected. Meanwhile Green Bay is at home; it’s going to be freezing; Grant is running well; and Brett Favre has been shredding (that’s the verb legally required by the NFL) secondaries that are better than that of the Giants. Yet there’s this pattern in the NFC that worries me. Seems like every year the weaker league somehow nurtures a surprise team all the way to the Superbowl. Still, Green Bay is the better of the two, and that they’re just the type of offense that will short pass the Giants into oblivion.

Green Bay/Over tease

Giants/Under tease

Maybe both.

Brooke: This is the money maker. GB has been solid all year. They have three quality receivers, a running back who gets better by the carry, and Favre pulling the strings. The main advantage for the Gints is the speed pass rush, but on a slow and potentially snowy track fast guys quickly become light guys. Even in college Eli had the reputation as a big game ball player, and his game against Dallas was his best ever. I don’t see him getting shut down, but I do see him getting stopped twice more than the Pack.

The over and the Pack. Separate but equal wagers.

Some of the best betting advice west of the Mississippi!

—    Jan 30, 08:05 PM    #

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