It’s the 15th weekend of the NFL season, and here’s how our gamblers have fared so far:
Week 14: 6-5-1
Week 14: 5-5
Brooke has a bye week, but Stefan is still here providing his insights on the games and the lines:
Denver at Houston (-1.5, 47)
Most psychiatrists don’t believe in a true split personality – it’s a bad plot line up there with amnesia and evil twins. The Broncos have been proof to the contrary. They beat down KC at Arrowhead, after losing to Oakland and Chicago, following a win against Tennessee. They’re a home team, and unpredictable on the road. But they’re probably facing Sage Rosenfelds, not Matt Shaub. Put it all in a blender and I like a tease of the Over with some other side, say Cincy. If your guy won’t take a tease over multiple days, then tease Denver and the Over.
Cincinnati (-8.5) at San Francisco (43)
San Fran will be trying out the new kid on Saturday, which introduces a small element of doubt, but not much. These guys are Doney McDonerstein of the clan McDone. Take Cincy straight up or a tease of Cincy with the Under.
Buffalo at Cleveland (-5.5, 45.5)
Give Buff and the Over 6 points each, and meet Brooke at the White Castle where he’ll be celebrating nearly beating Cleveland.
Jax at Pitt (-4,39.5)
The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that trend hold. I also like Jacksonville, who seem to be coming into their own. I like Pitt to win, but not dominate, so a tease of the two (Jax/U) also works for me.
Jets at NE (-24,50.5)
This opened at a pan galactic, record-breaking 27 points, which got gobbled up by the heavy hitters and returned to a merely stratospheric 24 by Monday morning. The logical pick is simple. If you think the Jets can get 14 points, you take them and the Over as separate bets. You can’t lose both sides. It would be nice if the formula worked with 13, but that’s why Vegas is home to smart people living stupid lives. If you don’t want to get cute, tease the Pats with the Over. 6 is about as good as 9 in this scenario, so don’t bother with a three teamer, unless the Over is the only side that’s involved.
Seattle (-7) at Carolina (38)
Why include this dogshit game? Because Seattle is perfectly designed to crush Carolina by 4 touchdowns. Take Seattle, take the Over and whatever you do, don’t watch.
Indianapolis (-10.5) at Oakland (45)
I don’t see this spread staying under 12, but no matter. Even a lazy, playoff-clinched Indy kills Oakland. It’s the class end of the league versus the ass end. Tease Indy with Dallas if you want to lighten the load.
Philadelphia at Dallas (-10, 48.5)
Philly has lost their last four games by a combined 16 points. They’re fighters. Unfortunately they’re bringing a knife to a gun fight. Dallas beat them by 21 points last month in Philly. Can’t for the life of me reason why they won’t do it again. See above for a tasty tease if the tenner is scary.
Washington at Giants (-4.5, 36.5)
You’d think that a guy who had thrown 27 passes in nine seasons would make for a bigger spread, but something’s up in Vegas. Todd Collins is starting for Washington, and this spread ought to be 6.5 or higher, and yet…and yet. Collins looked solid on Thursday, but I’m pretty sure that Brooke will have some thoughts about how good this guy is, remembering back to that banner season where he started 13 games for the Bills.
I still can’t help but think that the monolithic Collins will be grist for the front seven mill of the Giants, letting Eli play one of his artfully mediocre games that ends with the Giants winning by just enough.
Chicago at Minnesota (-9.5, 43.5)
Hopefully Chicago won’t get their cooties on Minnesota. Take the 10 to the bank.