Gambling Gurus: NFL Week 9 Picks

Stefan:
Through a mix of wily teases and gutsy picks (who among us could have picked the Patriots game would be an Over?) the Gambling Gurus went 7 and 1, making a tidy bundle in Week 8.

Brooke:

  • The Rams and Dolphins get their byes this week and this Gambling Guru thinks one or both of these guys gets a W on Nov. 11. Oh Shit. My Bills play at Miami November 11th. Is hurricane season over? Wait! I feel sick.
  • I believe in parody, sorry parity. Last week I ate soap on all but 2 of my picks*. (I did have my belly full of ribs and my head full of Shiner Bock for most of the week. But just like coach always said. “No excuses, punk. You just flat out suck.”) Anyway, like every other highly trained pro would be, I’m back out on the field this week, sticking to my game plan, and sure as sugar I’ll have this ship turned around in time for the playoffs.

*Since I was out of town I let Stefan deal with the Dead Presidents.

Carolina at Ten (-4, 35.5)

Stefan:
Carolina has beaten a few bad teams, somehow managing a 4 and 3 record (thank you NFC). Tennessee is better, but doesn’t tend to cover the straight spread. This game screams tease, specifically moving the Titans to +2, and the Over to 30 or the Under to 42. Either one could hit. In fact, this is one of those cases where a bettor might consider ‘boxing’ the bet, taking two offsetting bets that take Tennessee and use the tease to open up a 12 point window between Under and Over. If the score hits inside the window, you win both and if not, they offset minus the vig. Of course if the Panthers pull an upset, you’re screwed, but that’s entertainment.

Brooke:
Vince Young threw for 42 yards last week, but Lendale White ran for 133 and the Titans squeaked out of Oakland with a 4 point win. Imagine what happens when Young throws for 84 yards this week. Now imagine what the final score will be. Tennessee by 8.

CIN at Buf (43.5)

Stefan:
Buffalo has developed a pattern of playing good teams tight, and beating bad ones. Cincy is a bad one, and they absolutely open their thighs for opposing running backs. I’m sure Brooke will expound on this one, but in the meantime, Bills.

Brooke:
J.P. is back under center, at home, and against a poor secondary. $3,000,000 American Dollars (2.9 Mill Canadian, and 1.75 Mill Euros) in bonus cash is his for the taking if he can hit Evans deep a couple of times. If I had that much to gain and it were me chucking the rock I might call a couple audibles at the line and just sling it downfield. Also, Mr. Marshawn Lynch is due to crack 100, but the real deciding factor in this one will be that certain Bengals players have some felonies they would like to perpetrate and at 2-6 the Cinci brass may not mind the distraction, but if they win this one they will be 3-5 and have to wait a few more weeks before the can resume their second careers. Buffalo.

GB at KC (-2, 38.5)

Stefan:
It surprises me that KC opened as a near FG favorite over Green Bay after the latter’s big win in Denver, but KC plays with the best home field in the league and have done pretty well recently. More importantly, they’re in the AFC, so I’ll take them at less than a field goal.

Brooke:
Herm is on his way to Coach of the Year honors and KC is on its way to a 10-6 season and this is exactly the kind of win that gets them there. GB is on its way to a 12-4 season. This seems like as good a week as any for them to pick up loss #2. BF throws a couple picks to help KC put this one away, and to keep the Under intact.

Jax at NO (-3.5, 37)

Stefan:
The recent NO run has been at the expense of harmless and mostly harmless NFC teams. Jacksonville is doing pretty well with the new kid at QB, and they play so tough at the line I like them to shut down Reggie Bush. Jax straight up, or a tease of Jax with the Under.

Brooke:
The AFC South is 8-2 against the NFC South. This is a big reason all these NFC teams except Atlanta are at or around .500. The Jags are going to pound out massive yardage on the ground. Quinn will throw less than 15 times. Ditto Stefan’s Picks Above.

SD (-7) at Minny (41)

Stefan:
Minnesota’s passing D is among the worst in the game, so even if they stop Ladanian Tomlinson, it won’t matter. The Chargers are on a league sanctioned roll to add some drama to the AFC race, and they won’t stop until the playoffs. If the straight bet is too many points, Tease with the Under.

Brooke:
The main reasons I think 7 points is a relative bargain is that Minnie will be playing the game without a QB, and they have only been practicing the wishbone for a week. But, beware this is a punishment pick. The Purple Nurples have been costing my wife a lot of dinners out, and I am starting to hear about it. SD and I like a SD tease with TENN.

Wash (-3.5) at Jets (35.5)

Stefan:
You’ve got to figure that the Skins will be looking for some beatdown production after that shaming they took last week in Foxboro. Good thing the Jets are sitting Chad Pennington, because he’d get sat but good by Wash. The problem is that you’ve got an unknown coming in, and generally I like to avoid these, because of the weird Lifetime Movie effect that rookies have on their first game. If forced, I like Wash to make what’s his name’s afternoon miserable.

Brooke:
The Mangenius is looking more like a Mangina these days, and I feel for him. I hope when the score is Skins 35- Jets 10 with 45 second left on the game clock and the Skins at 3rd and Goal on the 1 inch line that Mr Gibbs has Mr. Campbell fake taking a knee before diving into the end-zone. Wouldn’t that be super cool.

Sea at Cle (-1.5, 46.5)

Stefan:
Yawn. Browns? Sure.

Brooke:
Nobody in Cleaverton, OH. gives a whistle how Brady Quinn spends his holdout money anymore. Derek Anderson is the name and Foutsian efforts to Braylon and Kellen Jr. have the city feeling cuddly. Browns.

NE (-5.5) at Indy (56)

Stefan:
The Pats are more than field goal favorites against home field having, Super Bowl winning, undefeated Indy. What’s crazier is that the spread opened at 4.5 on Monday, and by that evening had risen to 5.5 and even 6 in some overseas betting palaces.
There are plenty of good reasons to suspect that Manning and Co. will beat the Pats, or at least cover. But you dance with those what brought you, and remember that the Pats beat the Colts silly through the first half of the AFC Championship game last year, before losing steam. That was with three receivers that Tom Brady can’t name today. The Pats offense gets to prove that it’s for real against the only team that matters. Pats.

Brooke:
Stefan always likes to mention how well the Pats did in the first half against Indy last year. But you have to give credit where credit is due, and Indy came out and beat the Pants off the Pats in the second frame. NE is running up the score, winning every half, every quarter, and almost every series of football it plays this year precisely because of the second half egg Indy laid on them in the AFC Championship last year.

Note on running up the score: You never tell a runner to slow down at the finish line (or a gymnast stop striving for 10s etc. etc.), because the runner, whether it be for a personal best or a World Record, is going against the clock. In team sports there is no objective measure like the clock, instead the best a team can hope for is legendary status and the informal “best ever” title. NE is on World Record pace right now, and this game shows how far out in front they are. The Pats and the Over.

Dallas (-3) at Philly (46.5)

Stefan:
Philly has done just enough to sew the seeds of doubt. They just might show up, right Santa? Nah. Dallas is back to having fun with the memory of the beat down from the Pats fading. They’re the class of the NFC, and they’ll enjoy drubbing the old BMOC.

Brooke:
I guess this team should be renamed the Pharma Eagles. Perhaps the Philly DA should talk to Belicheck about getting a wire-tap on the Reid home. Sorry Austin. Sorry Stefan.

Two days ago I had this penned as the Eagles moment to get back into the playoff race in the East, but Dawkins looks like he won’t suit up, Andy’s trying to keep his nose out of his sons’ kaka, McNabb still doesn’t look right, and I just don’t see Westbrook scoring more than 3 times. Take the 9th best team in football over the 22nd. Dallas.

Baltimore at Pitt (-9, 36)

Stefan:
Nine is a lot for Pitt, especially in a game that’s only projected to produce 36 points. But a few weeks ago Seattle got shut out in Pitt and their offense, while forgettable, doesn’t play like its wearing sleeping masks and clown shoes. Take Pitt or tease with somebody else you like, say Tennessee.

Brooke:
The longer this season goes the more comfortable I get taking a strong favorite against a big spread. Two weeks ago, the Bills offense scored their highest point total (19 big ones) against the Ravens world beating D. Pittsburgh should be able to better that number by 14. The over should be a lock if you think the ravens can muster a field goal and a safety. Pitt and the over. I also like Stefan’s Teases.

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