Gambling Gurus: Can the Bills Cover?

Brooke: In honor of Patriots vs. Bills week I will pick contrary to Stefan wherever a sane man can make a case.

Carolina (-9.5) at Green Bay (37.5)
Stefan:
This game won’t be close and the odds makers have socked Green Bay with a nine and half points. No worries. The Pack’s passing game has recently gone vertical again, and will make quick work of the Panthers. If the straight pick is too rich for your blood, take the tease of the Over and the Pack. Also a potential bracketing opportunity where you also take the Under. As always, if the team part loses, you’re screwed.

Brooke:
We all know where Green Bay is, but where the hell is Carolina anyway? Well wherever Carolina is that’s where Steve Smith will be. Not on the field…. I promise to pick against Stefan very soon, just not here and not now. Use GB in any two or three game tease you like. Tennis, I mean Tennessee at Denver anyone?

Giants (-2.5) at Detroit (49.5)
Stefan:
The Giants ought to win this by more than 2.5 points, but for some reason I’m not feeling it. Some teams respond to failure by rising up. Some don’t and I have a suspicion that the Giants are in the latter camp. I don’t why, and have no half-brained sports wonkishness to explain why, but I like the Under. Go figure.

Brooke:
While the Gints were taking it in the ashcan against the Boys I was playing the finest ping pong of my life. While the Lions were running backward, and no it doesn’t make you younger when you do that, I was taking out the trash. The Big problem for the Giants is Eli isn’t Romo. Heck he ain’t even Kitna. Neither am I? Nor am I? I ain’t none of ‘em either. But the game is in the dome, and the spread should be 2 points the other way. Take Detroit or Tease ‘em up with GB.

Pitt(-9.5) at Jets (40.5)
Stefan:
The only danger is that Pitt is playing an awful team a week after an emotional win that pretty much ensured them the AFC Central. This game might be a surprise in terms of how close it ends up being. Take the Jets and the Over as separate bets. If the Jets score 16 points, you’re guaranteed one side or the other…maybe both. That’s the ‘safe’ bet, but for some reason, I like the Over pure and simple.

Brooke:
Don’t you feel Herm would have the Jets at 4-5 and poised for this upset? The Mangenius may lead some team to the promised-land at some time, but it won’t ever be the Jets. There is way too much that can go wrong for the Swamp Men for them to cover. This one should be Pitt 27 NYJ 3, but if everything goes just right it will be 30-13.

Washington at Dallas (-10.5, 47)
Stefan:
This one’s easy. Washington and the Over as separate bets. Washington scores 19 points and you’re golden. Doesn’t everybody score 19 points against Dallas?

Brooke:
Easy for who? Stefan? I’ll take Big-D and the Under.

St. Louis (-2.5) at SF (41)
Stefan:
For some as still unknown reason, I decided to bet on and watch Seattle host the 49ers. Happily I took the right side. Even better, I’ve now seen San Fran play for an entire game. This team is absolutely god awful, and is catching St. Louis just as they’re showing some life. Take the bad team over the one that’s so bad they should be writing poetry and blues songs about it.

Brooke:
It is week 11 and we should have some idea about who’s who in the NFC West but we don’t. These two teams have a combined 1-13 record over the last 7 weeks. I’m thinking about taking the 100-1 odds that this game ends a tie. The tie happens with St. Louis down by six, punting to the Niners w/ 3 seconds on the clock. SF runs it back to the Ram ten when the ball carrier spontaneously combusts. The flames cause him to fumble. A Rams player picks it up and runs it back for a TD. The Ram kicker comes out for the point after and misses. Nothing happens in OT and St. Louis covers.

NE (-16.6) at Bills (46.5)
Stefan:
I’ll never forget the Bills coming to Foxboro in September of 2003. They laid a beating on the Pats of 31-0, but it wasn’t that close. That was the last game the Patriots would lose for more than a year, and the last game between the two won by the Bills. The Pats would come back to beat the Bills by a poetic 31 to zip in December on their way to winning the Super Bowl.

Four years later and the matchup is getting interesting again. The Bills have put together a nice run, and are hosting on a Sunday night. Is this the game that those tiresome fogies from the 72’ Fins have been waiting for? Can Buffalo at least cover the spread? Not so much. The Bills have been winning, but not playing great. The Cowboys and Denver did everything they could to give their games, but Buffalo just couldn’t take the hint. Their wins have been against mediocre teams with poor defenses. New England is the class of the NFL and will win hands down.

The safest bet is Buffalo and the Over. If they manage 16 points, you can’t lose both sides. So, punk, do you think Buffalo can score 16 points? Note: if Marshawn Lynch can’t play on Sunday night, and that seems likely, the Bills have no chance of playing a run oriented game to slow the pace. Pats by 21.

Brooke:
I tried to tally up how many Bills players would start for NE if the two teams became one. The list is short. Donte Whitner is the only lock on defense with Terrence Megee and Aaron Schobel as maybes. On offense Marshawn Lynch and Jason Peters are locks and Lee Evans would at least be in the three receiver set. That’s the bad news for Bills fans. But the good news is the entire special teams units would switch uniforms. The Bills do not start many drives deep in there own zone because of awesome return men, and Brian Moorman punts them out of trouble. Does this mean the Bills win this game? No, but when you are looking at this spread think what it would have been if the Bills were 7-2 with a win over Dallas included. Probably 8-10 points.

I fully expect the Pats to have a bad case of Double Unhappiness when the game starts in WNY. The Rockies Syndrome combined with the Clubber Lang Syndrome should create a very disappointing first half for the evil ones. (An incredibly hot team does not want to take a couple weeks off which the Pats just did, and the World Greatest In The World cannot reasonably view the Bills as a threat. Throughout the Pats run of supremacy no team has lost to them more frequently by more points that the Bills.) The Pats will win this in the second half, but the Bills will play well enough to feel good about themselves going forward. I’ll take the Bills.

Tennessee at Denver (-2, 38)
Stefan:
Best bet, don’t watch. If you must, tease Denver with the Under. Tennessee really doesn’t look like themselves on defense and don’t have the firepower to make up for it on offense. If they win, it won’t be by much and you’ve got a nice 4 point cushion.

Brooke:
It just occurred to me that all sexually active Denvernarians are in the Mile High Club. I like the tease both ways. Tennessee and the over or Tennessee and the under. Or take GB and Tenn together and prolong your suspense.

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