Week five was a strong cup of coffee after the wanton Jaeger shots of the first month of the season. I went 7 and 4 on the regular picks, and 2 of 3 on the elusive 3-team teases, and Brooke once again picked a key upset in Chicago’s win at Green Bay.
- Watch the spread…New England ended up hitting a 17 point spread, but bookies were giving anywhere from 14.5 to 16.5, and overseas the spread went as high as 17.5 (ouch).
- We predicted that New England would let up on Cleveland. Believe it or not, they did. The NE defense was giving it just enough in the second half (In their minds they were already messin’ with Texas). Proving themselves means everything to this team in the wake of sideline-cam-o-gate, and they get their chance in Dallas. More on that below.
- Seattle is quite arguably the second best team in the NFC, and they got shut out by the half-staffed Steelers. Meanwhile the third or fourth best team in the NFC, the Bucs, get waxed by Indy. Until someone proves otherwise, ‘elite’ NFC teams are 7 point dogs to top 7 AFC teams.
- The Redskins are interesting, but untested against a quality team. They tend to play Unders, but if you’re looking for something to play, a tease of Washington and the Over (-9.5,36.5) looks tasty.
I hate looking over my shoulder, but I would be lying if I said I wasn’t one of the three people to check out what I wrote in last week’s Gambling Gurus® today. (Thanks to Mom and Dad for keeping our numbers up.) I was totally wrong about the SD Denver game, but I learned a couple things.
- After two home beatings the Broncos’ season is over. They have the best home record in the league over the last decade, so if they cannot do it there where can they do it?
- San Diego will go to the playoffs. If they don’t go that would mean either KC (nope), the Broncs (nope), or Oakland (hmmmmm not likely) would go. SD is ½ game back and a stomping of the Raiders at home would put them right back where we all thought they would be in the first place… First Place that is.
- KC is the team with the second best home record over the last decade. What team beat the Broncs and KC in their own homes on back to back games??? The Jacksonville Jaguars (They had a bye between tilts, but so what?) are my official on the road upset team. The Jags are another one of the scrappy AFC South Squads that for the sake of parity they should sprinkle throughout the other divisions. With Andre Johnson still out the Houston Jags game has under written all over it.
- My Bills have created some of the most spectacular sports losses the world has ever seen. And like all great artists do they figured out how to turn one of their own masterpieces (See Denver week 1) around and put something even more beautiful on the other side of the canvas. I could write a novel about it, but I won’t. Instead I will just say, “Bravo. Bravissimo.”
Philly -4 at Jets 43
ST: 13,11,13,12,56,3…these are not the stats of a reedy woman with gigantic cankles. This is a list of the points scored by the Philadelphia Eagles in their last six games. The Jets have marginally better numbers, but lead one to an Under. Stay away from the Eagles unless Westbrook is playing, and stay away from the Jets unless Namath starts.
BC: This is a bettor’s trap game. D. McNabb is not himself, and will not be himself all year, but the Eagles can sack the QB. Chad is still himself for better or for worse. But if he gets a lot of pressure he will make the mistakes that cost them the Giants game. This should be a Philly win, but I look at Andy Reid and I think Burn Out. So the advice here is to follow the best player on the field rule and if Westbrook is on the field take Philly and if he isn’t take your lady out to dinner.
STL 37 at Balt -9
ST: St. Louis put up a good fight at home, but Baltimore squeaked out a win in San Francisco. Tease Baltimore down to a field goal and the Under up to 43. St. Louis is god awful, off the turf and just the kind of team that the Ravens can tee off on. If you need a straight pick, take the birds before their decent into mediocrity accelerates.
BC: It is week 6 in the NFL, and the NFC West is starting to sort itself out. And by far the most sordid, I mean sorted, is the St. Louis team. We now feel very good betting against them. But over the last 2 seasons Baltimore has been one of the worst if not the worst team against the spread (ATS) in the league. I would advise betting on the push (sic) but at 91/2 that doesn’t seem very likely. So instead take the under tease Rams to 16 point dogs w/ Tennessee.
Ten 37 at TB -3
ST: Tennessee didn’t look too good last week, but still managed to win, while Tampa got stomped in Indy. I like the Over in this one, since Tampa won’t be running much, and both QBs have the knack for scoring. And if you’re looking for the straight team pick, don’t let Tampa scare you. Tennessee is in the AFC.
Part 1: See Above.
Part 2: I love it when a plan comes together. If the Blue Flames had held up their end in Atlanta we wouldn’t be getting them at this price. But after an embarrassing win in front of the faithful, and a full week of sobriety I think Vince and co. will be back in the saddle. J. Garcia is a scary kind of miracle working character and the Bucs D will be angry after getting carved up, up north, but who really cares about any of that. The Bucs may win this, and they may even cover the three. But what really matters is that you buy a piece of the Titans and ride it out until it gets pricey again. Officially I’ll be taking Tenn ATS and the Tease w/ the Rams.
NE-6 at Dallas 53
ST: Does that baby have some candy? It does and I want it. This is the last time you’ll see a Pat’s spread of less than a touchdown until they go to Indy. Take advantage. NE.
BC: Now we come to the meat and potatoes: We should all count ourselves lucky that Dallas got out of the shower in time to sign for their latest W against another of the league’s JV units. Dallas’ 5-0 record is almost as overheated as the housing market was, and we all know what happened there. Let’s welcome the Boys to the Varsity and see how they fare. We all know Romo makes plays, but he also makes mistakes (muffed snap anyone??). T.O. catches a lot of TD’s but he also tops the league in drops. Brady, Moss and Co. make plays, but they don’t make many mistakes. Flash back to week 3. NE played my Bills. Brady came out sleepy and threw an early INT, and then Trent and the boys took it to the house. Buffalo led 7-3 at the end of the first quarter. The final score in that nail-biter: NE 38- Buf 7.
So, betting public, step up to the banquet and eat; we have NE for under 10 points for the second to last time this season, and how can’t you take it? I also like the over. NE 40 Big D 20.
Oak 45 at SD -10
ST: Who the hell shows up this week in San Diego? You would hope the team that made the state of Colorado cry last Sunday. Ten points seems steep, but I can’t bring myself to recommend Oakland on virtually no data. This might very well be a game like Philadelphia put together a couple of weeks ago against Detroit, only to get squashed by the Giants their next time out. Until last week, San Diego disappointed bettors nationwide. I guess they should be rewarded with some love
BC: Last year SD started slow before they got rolling, and they may be doing the same this year. It is possible that LT is back and the other Mr. Turner is ready to show the other 31 teams he should be their starting RB. It is certain that A. Gates is a monster, and Rivers know where to find him. But the real question is has the D finally shown up. The 10 point spread seems to say it has, but Oakland finds itself in the awkward position of defending their first place status. They will be very game for this one, losing a close one. I’m going against the Chargers for at least another week. Give me the Raiders and the points.
NO 43 at Seattle -7
ST: Boy, do they wish they could program something else for this Sunday night timeslot. America’s Funniest Home Videos is going to murder this intramural between the worst and second-best teams in the NFC, a conference on a par with the Tomato Disease Workshop and 2nd International Conference on Hypertension, Lipids, Diabetes & Stroke Prevention. Seattle by a touchdown? Sure thing.
BC: The flex game can’t come soon enough. Poor NBC. Poor Poor Poor NBC.
I mean it. Poor old NBC!!!!!! WTF Give me Seattle BY 8.
Giants -5 at Atlanta 44
ST: Atlanta put up a fight last week in Tennessee while the Giants lucked into a win. Doesn’t matter. The Giants have some parts moving together and I think they’re the kind of speed team that will play well in the dome. The Over here is probably the safest bet, with a tease of the Over and Giants sounding OK. For that matter, I’m down with the Giants, given Atlanta’s offensive line injuries.
BC: Atlanta is not a good team, but teams that know they are not going to the playoffs view these night games as their only opportunity to get respect in Football Nation. This will be a close one at the half before the Gints finally do their thing. The Falcon O-line gives up plenty of sacks, but not 12 (The Falcons didn’t trade for Justice did they?) No, the Gints thing is and I cite the Gambling Gurus® rule # 4 here: bet on the best player on the field. Plax takes another step to Hawaii with this 3 TD performance and the Giants inflate their record and pad their stats in a 14 point win.
Three team tease of the week:
- Move Seattle down to 2.5
- Ensure that Tennessee can lose by 11.5
- And give Washington a 12.5 point cushion
I just took a gander at the Jets sack numbers…3 all year. Maybe the birds will fly after all.
— Stefan Oct 12, 03:23 PM #