Gambling Gurus: Read the Signs, Pats Win

Stefan and Brooke had a rough outing last week. We hope you didn’t take their advice. Of Stefan’s 7 suggested bets, he ended with 2 wins and 5 losses. Brooke wasn’t much better. He had 4 wins, 6 losses, and a push. But they’re not discouraged. It’s a long season, and they’re back to try their luck again.

Stefan’s Preamble
Although it will be scant consolation to anyone who went with most of my picks last week, a disproportionate wager on my Pats and a late change of heart on Philly, and I ended the week up. Five dollars up, to be exact. Given the mortgage payment I risked over the course of Sunday, I consider myself lucky.

In our defense, the “professional” pickers took a beating right along with the amateurs. Besides, if I stay the course, picking against me should net you a pretty penny.

Stefan’s Faves

Buffalo at Pats (line: Pats by 16.5, 42)
Tapegate is the best thing that could have happened to the Pats. An already very good team has been given a new source of motivation to prove itself. That’ll help protect them against the kind of letdown they might otherwise have when playing 0-2 Buffalo. Look for the Bills to play above expectations, and make it a scary first half, but eventually fall behind the Pats and get pressured into mistakes. As daunting as a 16.5 point spread is, and as badly as the big spread picks went in Week 2, walk tall. PATS.

Detroit at Philly (Philly by 6.5, 43.5)
Nearly a touchdown for Philly? I’m feeling the Kitna love. He’s just like Jeff Chandler in Atlanta a few years back – he plays and they win, he just can’t play that often. Kitna starts, DETROIT covers.

Seattle at Cincy (Seattle by 3, 50.5)
Cincy screwed me but good last week in the Our Secondaries Can’t Cover a Shift at Denny’s Bowl, so I’m in love. Cincy will score more points than Seattle. I’m not wild about the Over, but I’ll take the field goal spread at home, thank you very much. CINCY.

Jacksonville at Denver (Denver by 3, 36)
If I didn’t feel obligated, I wouldn’t have a pick at 4 p.m., but lacking anything else, I’ll go with Denver, which has the best home field advantage in the league. Sure, Oakland played them tough, but that was divisional. Jacksonville hasn’t been scoring points. DENVER wins late, hopefully by 4.

Dallas at Chicago (Chicago by 3, 42)
It would be nice if the odd makers hadn’t noticed that Chicago can’t score. I’d like a bigger spread, but the Dallas offensive line is looking pretty good and that’s probably enough to beat Chicago. DALLAS.

Titans at New Orleans (NO by 5.5, 45.5), Monday night
Until proven otherwise, the Titans are winners and the Saints ain’t. Tennessee roughed up Jacksonville, who have been the checking team of the NFL for years and then matched the speedy defense of Indy til the last. Vince Young has yet to show off that arm and the Saints are quaking. Even if their offense starts getting that meth binge vibe going again, their secondary will let Vinny keep pace. Be the spread Danny. TITANS.

Brooke’s Preamble
Last week blew if you were from Buffalo. J.P. Losman sucked balls, and Dick Jauron lived up to his record. Then the other games started going final. It looked like straight up Armageddon for my October vacation plans, but I had a late rally to finish up 4-4-1. In short, I still had enough change in my pocket to hit the Myrtle Avenue White Castle with my wife and split a slider with her.

Notes:

  • You heard it here third: Reggie Bush will not be as good as Mario Williams. Within 3 years Vince and Mario will be going head to head in meaningful games in January while RB recovers from a high ankle sprain.
  • That said, until they prove otherwise the New Orleans offense is what it is, and their D is what it has always been.

Brooke’s Picks

Buffalo at Pats (line: Pats by 16.5, 42)
I once helped lasso a lamb. When we had it all tied up, we slit its neck and let its heart pump all its blood into a 2 gallon pickling jar. There were about eight of us, all men, drinking wine and watching. When the last of the blood dripped out and the animal became meat we skinned it, gutted it, and grilled it. We had many women over and drank and ate well into dawn. It was a great time. The PATS are the pick, the OVER is the pick and the PATS with the OVER is the pick. Take your pick.

Indianapolis at Houston (Indy by 6, Note: Andre Johnson is out and this line will change, 46)
The biggest problem with Houston is: it’s in Houston. the same goes for Indianapolis, but more so (The city only its mother could love). This division is the new Black and Blue Central; tease it right and you will have a winner. I say take HOUSTON and the UNDER.

Minnesota at Kansas City (KC by 2.5, 33)
Herm likes to win or lose by three points less then the oddsmakers tell you he will win or lose by. So where does that leave us with this spread? With a very tasty tease. Take KC at home and the OVER and meet me and my wife for a box of sliders at the Myrtle White Castle.

Seattle at Cincinnati (Seattle by 3, 50.5)
If Cincinnati is the Cincinnati of the AFC, then Seattle is the Cincinnati of the NFC. Alexander looks good against teams from Ohio this year. Watch the weather and if it is good weather to chuck the ball take the OVER.

San Diego at Green Bay (Green Bay by 4.5, 43.5)
Is Norv Turner a bad coach? Probably. Is he an awful coach? We will find out soon. Games like this one need to be won. If San Diego starts the season by squeaking by the Bears, getting waxed by the Pats, and then loses to Green Bay to go 1-2 there may not be enough SO-CO in SO-CAL. Take SD.

NY Giants at Washington (Washington by 4, 40.5)
Picking NFC East games used mean you had even more incentive to watch good football played well and with passion. Now unless you are a real fan of Sean Taylor or Plax, a bet is the only incentive. This may be the year Washington finally finishes second and just misses the Wild Card birth. I think it will be and it all starts here with a six point victory. Washington.

Dallas at Chicago (Chicago by 3, 42)
I think Less Grossman will do just enough for Dallas to fumble away the chance to win it. DALLAS is the pick.

Titans at New Orleans (NO by 5.5, 45.5), Monday night
Whoever tuned in last week knows what’s coming. Vince Young is the best athlete on the field. Jeff Fisher is the better coach on the sideline. New Orleans has been the worst team according to expectations, and after the Pats, Indy and maybe Dallas, Tennessee has played the most consistent football in the league. Love the spread and give me TENNESSEE.

“I’m feeling the Kitna love. He’s just like Jeff Chandler in Atlanta a few years back – he plays and they win.” …
Except when it is a sunday. And when they play the eagles!

— tyson    Sep 24, 10:13 AM    #

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