Gambling Guru: Saints Are Money

After another truly shocking playoff weekend, it’s down to four teams. Before we look at the upcoming match-ups, it’s time for a quick look back at the predictions and results of the Divisional round.

Indy at Baltimore (Indy 16, Baltimore 6)
A friend from Baltimore warned me about how the defensive line of Indy has historically played the Ravens extremely well, but that game was unexpected. There’s a reason that it’s a 90-to-1 sucker’s bet that there won’t be a touchdown in a game. In my picks I liked both Baltimore and the OVER. Naturally, it was a defensive battle that Indy won. Both picks were losers.

Eagles at Saints (Saints 27, Philly 24)
As predicted, it was a great game, and a shoot out that left the Saints standing. My suggestion of a tease of Philly with the Over won, as would each on their own.

Seattle at Chicago (Chicago 27, Seattle 24)
When two easily stopped forces meet two readily movable objects, you get this game. It’s really a shame that Chicago gets to advance to the next round, but it would have been worse if it were Seattle. In any case, I liked Seattle and the OVER, which came in nicely.

New England at San Diego (NE 24, SD 21)
Thanks to Marty Schottenheimer and Bill Belichick’s 2001 signing of Satan, the Pats managed an astounding upset of the best team in football. As promised the tease of NE and the OVER came in, but in fairness, I did intimate that San Diego ought to cover, so that one gets an asterisk.

For the weekend 4-2*

New Orleans at Chicago
As far as I’m concerned, the NFC championship was played last week in New Orleans. The Bears are truly the lesser of two evils coming out of the game with Seattle, and I love New Orleans. Their offense will move the ball against a defense that isn’t nearly what it was earlier in the season. Although it will be tempting to some to go with the home team on grass against the dome playing upstarts, the talent is on the Saints sideline.

On Monday morning, the line out of Las Vegas is Chicago by 3, with a total of 43 points. We’ll see if that narrows up as gamblers lick their chops at the thought of Deuce McAllister and Drew Brees facing that weak pass rush of Chicago. I love New Orleans as an underdog, and like the tease of New Orleans with the OVER, pulling that down to 37, barring truly awful winter weather. In that case, the same tease with the UNDER looks good.

New England at Indianapolis
What an odd game football is – somehow delivering the stories that make sportswriters salivate. Peyton Manning now has the opportunity to dispel his big game demons against the team that summoned them, the same Patriots who have so often crushed his hopes. Although Indy can’t be dismissed, there are a few things to like about this game for betting the Pats. First, Tom Brady loves domes, having gone 12-0 in them since he became a starter. Second, the offensive line was spectacular against the number one sacking defense in the league in San Diego. Finally, Manning has been throwing picks, and the Patriots have a knack for catching them.

Given how both teams have played defense, I’d stay away from the total, but you’ve got to like the Pats as 3 point underdogs. If you’re looking for a tease, I’d mix the Pats and the UNDER, which would move the total from 47.5 up to 53.5.

how did this website become an extended paean to NFL gambling?

— kenny loggins    Jan 23, 02:10 PM    #


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